****  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR "INTERTEMPORAL RETROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC VOTING BEHAVIOR" PAPER WITH BEN MELUSKY *****

 * OPEN STATA OUTPUT FILE LOG

   log using "D:\Melusky\Intertemporal Electoral Choice Project\Data\median regression analyses.11-07-2013.FINAL.smcl" 




 * OPEN "COLLECTIVE WISDOM" DATA SET
  
    use "D:\Melusky\Intertemporal Electoral Choice Project\Data\intertemporal retrospective economic voting.11-02-2013.dta", clear
  





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**** TABLE SI-2:  ESTIMATE SELECTION EQUATION MODEL SUING SML SEMI-PARAMETRIC BINARY INDEX FUNCTION INTENDED FOR MEDIAN/QUANTILE REGRESSION [E.G., KLEIN & SPADY 1993; BUCHINSKY 2001] ****



*** SELECTION EQUATION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] **** 



*** COMMON OUTCOME EQUATION COVARIATES: ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP: + [AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS]; LAST ELECTION RESULTS: + [VOTE SHARE IN PREVIOUS ELECTION CONTEST] **** 

*** UNIQUE COVARIATES: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR: +; PERCENT UNIFIED PARTY GOVERNMENT DURING THEIR PRIOR TENURE IN OFFICE: +; AGE (YEARS, MONTHS) AT TIME OF ELECTION EVENT: +; GUBERNATORIAL TERM LIMITS EXIST IN STATE AT TIME OF EXITING OFFICE +; WHETHER GOVERNOR HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY RE-ELECTED +   



sml eddur2binary  personalincomerecentyearann lastelectionresults preselectyr pctunifiedtenure electionage electionagesq statetermlimits reelected



*** GENERATE INVERSE MILLS RATIO AND THEIR RESPECTIVE POWERS ***  

predict double eddur2binarypred4, xb

gen double imr4 = normalden(eddur2binarypred4) / normal(eddur2binarypred4)

sum imr4 if eddur2binary==1, detail

*
*
*

generate imr4sq=imr4^2
*
generate imr4cubic=imr4^3






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*** ESTIMATE OVERALL TENURE ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL 1A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1

predict tenurefullresidsimrcook1a, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcook1a if tenurefullresidsimrcook1a >= 1  & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL 1B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1a < 1








******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL 1C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrcook1c, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcook1c if tenurefullresidsimrcook1c >= 1  & eddur2binary==1







*** MODEL 1D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1c < 1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144






*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [20TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 1.207%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*1 + pictenureann*1.207*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*12 + pictenureann*1.207*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*24 + pictenureann*1.207*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*36 + pictenureann*1.207*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*48 + pictenureann*1.207*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*60 + pictenureann*1.207*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*72 + pictenureann*1.207*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*84 + pictenureann*1.207*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*96 + pictenureann*1.207*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*108 + pictenureann*1.207*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*120 + pictenureann*1.207*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*132 + pictenureann*1.207*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*144 + pictenureann*1.207*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
*
*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [50TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.162%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*1 + pictenureann*2.162*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673 + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*12 + pictenureann*2.162*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*24 + pictenureann*2.162*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*36 + pictenureann*2.162*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*48 + pictenureann*2.162*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*60 + pictenureann*2.162*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*72 + pictenureann*2.162*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*84 + pictenureann*2.162*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*96 + pictenureann*2.162*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*108 + pictenureann*2.162*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*120 + pictenureann*2.162*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*132 + pictenureann*2.162*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*144 + pictenureann*2.162*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*


*
*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [80TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.977%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*1 + pictenureann*2.977*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*12 + pictenureann*2.977*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*24 + pictenureann*2.977*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*36 + pictenureann*2.977*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*48 + pictenureann*2.977*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*60 + pictenureann*2.977*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*72 + pictenureann*2.977*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*84 + pictenureann*2.977*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*96 + pictenureann*2.977*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*108 + pictenureann*2.977*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*120 + pictenureann*2.977*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*132 + pictenureann*2.977*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*144 + pictenureann*2.977*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 












*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT/LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********





*** MODEL 2A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1


predict rtermfullresidsimrcook2a, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrcook2a if rtermfullresidsimrcook2a >= 1 & eddur2binary==1




*** MODEL 2B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2a < 1 







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL 2C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict rtermfullresidsimrcook2c, cooksd

*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrcook2c if rtermfullresidsimrcook2c >= 1 & eddur2binary==1






*** MODEL 2D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2c < 1 



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144






*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [20TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 0.901%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*1 + picrtermann*0.901*1 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*12 + picrtermann*0.901*12 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*24 + picrtermann*0.901*24 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*36 + picrtermann*0.901*36 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*48 + picrtermann*0.901*48 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*60 + picrtermann*0.901*60 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*72 + picrtermann*0.901*72 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*84 + picrtermann*0.901*84 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*96 + picrtermann*0.901*96 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*108 + picrtermann*0.901*108 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*120 + picrtermann*0.901*120 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*132 + picrtermann*0.901*132 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*144 + picrtermann*0.901*144 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*

*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [50TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.135%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*1 + picrtermann*2.135*1 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*12 + picrtermann*2.135*12 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*24 + picrtermann*2.135*24 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*36 + picrtermann*2.135*36 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*48 + picrtermann*2.135*48 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*60 + picrtermann*2.135*60 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*72 + picrtermann*2.135*72 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*84 + picrtermann*2.135*84 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*96 + picrtermann*2.135*96 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*108 + picrtermann*2.135*108 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*120 + picrtermann*2.135*120 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*132 + picrtermann*2.135*132 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*144 + picrtermann*2.135*144 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*

*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [80TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 3.733%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*1 + picrtermann*3.733*1 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*12 + picrtermann*3.733*12 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*24 + picrtermann*3.733*24 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*36 + picrtermann*3.733*36 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*48 + picrtermann*3.733*48 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*60 + picrtermann*3.733*60 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*72 + picrtermann*3.733*72 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*84 + picrtermann*3.733*84 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*96 + picrtermann*3.733*96 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*108 + picrtermann*3.733*108 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*120 + picrtermann*3.733*120 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*132 + picrtermann*3.733*132 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*144 + picrtermann*3.733*144 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
*








*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT YEAR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL 3A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1


predict ryearfullresidsimrcook3a, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrcook3a if ryearfullresidsimrcook3a >= 1 & eddur2binary==1




*** MODEL 3B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3a < 1, norobust







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL 3C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict ryearfullresidsimrcook3c, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrcook3c if ryearfullresidsimrcook3c >= 1 & eddur2binary==1






*** MODEL 3D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3c < 1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144






*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [20TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 0.361%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*1 + picryearann*0.361*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*12 + picryearann*0.361*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*24 + picryearann*0.361*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*36 + picryearann*0.361*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*48 + picryearann*0.361*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*60 + picryearann*0.361*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*72 + picryearann*0.361*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*84 + picryearann*0.361*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*96 + picryearann*0.361*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*108 + picryearann*0.361*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*120 + picryearann*0.361*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*132 + picryearann*0.361*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*144 + picryearann*0.361*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*


*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [50TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.029%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*1 + picryearann*2.029*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*12 + picryearann*2.029*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*24 + picryearann*2.029*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*36 + picryearann*2.029*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*48 + picryearann*2.029*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*60 + picryearann*2.029*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*72 + picryearann*2.029*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*84 + picryearann*2.029*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*96 + picryearann*2.029*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*108 + picryearann*2.029*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*120 + picryearann*2.029*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*132 + picryearann*2.029*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*144 + picryearann*2.029*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*

*
*
*



*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [80TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 4.006%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*1 + picryearann*4.006*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*12 + picryearann*4.006*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*24 + picryearann*4.006*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*36 + picryearann*4.006*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*48 + picryearann*4.006*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*60 + picryearann*4.006*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*72 + picryearann*4.006*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*84 + picryearann*4.006*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*96 + picryearann*4.006*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*108 + picryearann*4.006*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*120 + picryearann*4.006*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*132 + picryearann*4.006*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*144 + picryearann*4.006*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*









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***** TABLE SI-3:  AGGREGATE MODELS ESTIMATED USING OLS [CF. MODELS 1A-1D, 2A-2D, & 3A-3D] & CORRESPONDING POST-ESTIMATION MODEL DIAGNOSTICS [RESIDUAL SKEWNESS & KURTOSIS TESTS & RAMSEY RESET TEST FOR FUNCTIONAL FORM] *******







*** ESTIMATE OVERALL TENURE ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-3A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1

predict olsmodel1aresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel1aresids
*
estat ovtest



*** MODEL SI-3B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1a < 1

predict olsmodel1bresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel1aresids if tenurefullresidsimrcook1a < 1
*
estat ovtest





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-3C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***


regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1

predict olsmodel1cresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel1cresids
*
estat ovtest



*** MODEL SI-3D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcook1c < 1

predict olsmodel1dresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel1dresids if tenurefullresidsimrcook1c < 1
*
estat ovtest



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144






*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [20TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 1.207%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*1 + pictenureann*1.207*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*12 + pictenureann*1.207*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*24 + pictenureann*1.207*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*36 + pictenureann*1.207*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*48 + pictenureann*1.207*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*60 + pictenureann*1.207*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*72 + pictenureann*1.207*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*84 + pictenureann*1.207*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*96 + pictenureann*1.207*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*108 + pictenureann*1.207*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*120 + pictenureann*1.207*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*132 + pictenureann*1.207*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*1.207 + eddurmonths2*144 + pictenureann*1.207*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
*
*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [50TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.162%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*1 + pictenureann*2.162*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673 + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*12 + pictenureann*2.162*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*24 + pictenureann*2.162*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*36 + pictenureann*2.162*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*48 + pictenureann*2.162*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*60 + pictenureann*2.162*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*72 + pictenureann*2.162*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*84 + pictenureann*2.162*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*96 + pictenureann*2.162*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*108 + pictenureann*2.162*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*120 + pictenureann*2.162*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*132 + pictenureann*2.162*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.162 + eddurmonths2*144 + pictenureann*2.162*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*


*
*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [80TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.977%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*1 + pictenureann*2.977*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*12 + pictenureann*2.977*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*24 + pictenureann*2.977*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*36 + pictenureann*2.977*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*48 + pictenureann*2.977*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*60 + pictenureann*2.977*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*72 + pictenureann*2.977*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*84 + pictenureann*2.977*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*96 + pictenureann*2.977*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*108 + pictenureann*2.977*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*120 + pictenureann*2.977*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*132 + pictenureann*2.977*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincometenureann*2.977 + eddurmonths2*144 + pictenureann*2.977*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02182 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.160388 +  senateseat*0.60 + incumbparty*0.20 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4713567 + incumbdeficit*0.4272727 + vapabschangelo*5.77997 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.570858 + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 









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*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT/LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********





*** MODEL SI-3E: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1

predict olsmodel2aresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel2aresids 
*
estat ovtest




*** MODEL SI-3F: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2a < 1 

predict olsmodel2bresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel2bresids if rtermfullresidsimrcook2a < 1
*
estat ovtest





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-3G: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1

predict olsmodel2cresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel2cresids 
*
estat ovtest




*** MODEL SI-3H: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrcook2c < 1 

predict olsmodel2dresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel2dresids if rtermfullresidsimrcook2c < 1
*
estat ovtest



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144






*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [20TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 0.901%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*1 + picrtermann*0.901*1 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*12 + picrtermann*0.901*12 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*24 + picrtermann*0.901*24 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*36 + picrtermann*0.901*36 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*48 + picrtermann*0.901*48 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*60 + picrtermann*0.901*60 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*72 + picrtermann*0.901*72 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*84 + picrtermann*0.901*84 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*96 + picrtermann*0.901*96 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*108 + picrtermann*0.901*108 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*120 + picrtermann*0.901*120 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*132 + picrtermann*0.901*132 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*0.901 + eddurmonths2*144 + picrtermann*0.901*144 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*

*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [50TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.135%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*1 + picrtermann*2.135*1 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*12 + picrtermann*2.135*12 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*24 + picrtermann*2.135*24 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*36 + picrtermann*2.135*36 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*48 + picrtermann*2.135*48 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*60 + picrtermann*2.135*60 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*72 + picrtermann*2.135*72 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*84 + picrtermann*2.135*84 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*96 + picrtermann*2.135*96 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*108 + picrtermann*2.135*108 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*120 + picrtermann*2.135*120 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*132 + picrtermann*2.135*132 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
* 
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*2.135 + eddurmonths2*144 + picrtermann*2.135*144 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*

*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [80TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 3.733%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*1 + picrtermann*3.733*1 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*12 + picrtermann*3.733*12 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*24 + picrtermann*3.733*24 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*36 + picrtermann*3.733*36 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*48 + picrtermann*3.733*48 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*60 + picrtermann*3.733*60 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*72 + picrtermann*3.733*72 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*84 + picrtermann*3.733*84 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*96 + picrtermann*3.733*96 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*108 + picrtermann*3.733*108 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*120 + picrtermann*3.733*120 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*132 + picrtermann*3.733*132 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecenttermann*3.733 + eddurmonths2*144 + picrtermann*3.733*144 + lastelectionresults*59.28571 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.113017 +  senateseat*0.6095238  + incumbparty*0.2095238  + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4765339 + incumbdeficit*0.4095238 + vapabschangelo*5.948868  + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.64125  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
*






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*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT YEAR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-3I: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1

predict olsmodel3aresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel3aresids 
*
estat ovtest




*** MODEL SI-3J: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3a < 1, norobust

predict olsmodel3bresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel3bresids if ryearfullresidsimrcook3a < 1
*
estat ovtest






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-3K: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1

predict olsmodel3cresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel3cresids 
*
estat ovtest





*** MODEL SI-3L: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


regress electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrcook3c < 1

predict olsmodel3dresids, r
*
sktest olsmodel3dresids if ryearfullresidsimrcook3c < 1
*
estat ovtest



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144






*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [20TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 0.361%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*1 + picryearann*0.361*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*12 + picryearann*0.361*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*24 + picryearann*0.361*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*36 + picryearann*0.361*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*48 + picryearann*0.361*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*60 + picryearann*0.361*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*72 + picryearann*0.361*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*84 + picryearann*0.361*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*96 + picryearann*0.361*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*108 + picryearann*0.361*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*120 + picryearann*0.361*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*132 + picryearann*0.361*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*0.361 + eddurmonths2*144 + picryearann*0.361*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*


*
*
*


*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [50TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 2.029%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*1 + picryearann*2.029*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*12 + picryearann*2.029*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*24 + picryearann*2.029*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*36 + picryearann*2.029*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*48 + picryearann*2.029*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*60 + picryearann*2.029*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*72 + picryearann*2.029*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*84 + picryearann*2.029*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*96 + picryearann*2.029*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*108 + picryearann*2.029*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*120 + picryearann*2.029*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*132 + picryearann*2.029*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*2.029 + eddurmonths2*144 + picryearann*2.029*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*

*
*
*



*** EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE SHARE EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST [80TH PERCENTILE AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS = 4.006%] ***
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*1 + picryearann*4.006*1 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*12 + picryearann*4.006*12 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*24 + picryearann*4.006*24 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*36 + picryearann*4.006*36 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*48 + picryearann*4.006*48 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*60 + picryearann*4.006*60 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*72 + picryearann*4.006*72 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*84 + picryearann*4.006*84 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*96 + picryearann*4.006*96 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*108 + picryearann*4.006*108 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*120 + picryearann*4.006*120 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*132 + picryearann*4.006*132 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*
lincom _cons + personalincomerecentyearann*4.006 + eddurmonths2*144 + picryearann*4.006*144 + lastelectionresults*59.02478 + personalincpctchangeelectquarter*2.125215 +  senateseat*0.6017699  + incumbparty*0.2035398 + incumbpartypicelectqtr*0.4828487 + incumbdeficit*0.4336283  + vapabschangelo*5.725454 + stateideolchangepartyadj*-7.499487  + imr4*2.673  + imr4sq*7.647 + imr4cubic*23.338 
*












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***** TABLE SI-4:  AGGREGATE MODELS ACCOUNTING FOR DIFFERENT ORDERS OF IMR COVARIATES TO ACCOUNT FOR SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS ******





*** ESTIMATE OVERALL TENURE ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-4A: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA LINEAR INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrlincooksi4a, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrlincooksi4a if tenurefullresidsimrlincooksi4a >= 1  & eddur2binary==1





*** MODEL SI-4B: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA LINEAR INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrlincooksi4a < 1





*** MODEL SI-4C: UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA SQUARED INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrsqcooksi4c, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrsqcooksi4c if tenurefullresidsimrsqcooksi4c >= 1  & eddur2binary==1





*** MODEL SI-4D: RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA SQUARED INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrsqcooksi4c < 1




*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-4E UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA LINEAR INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict rtermfullresidsimrlincooksi4e, cooksd

*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrlincooksi4e if rtermfullresidsimrlincooksi4e >= 1 & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL SI-4F RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA LINEAR INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrlincooksi4e < 1 






*** MODEL SI-4G UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA SQUARED INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict rtermfullresidsimrsqcooksi4g, cooksd

*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general rtermfullresidsimrsqcooksi4g if rtermfullresidsimrsqcooksi4g >= 1 & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL SI-4H RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA SQUARED INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq if eddur2binary==1 & rtermfullresidsimrsqcooksi4g < 1 





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*** ESTIMATE MOST RECENT YEAR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********




*** MODEL SI-4I  UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA LINEAR INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict ryearfullresidsimrlincooksi4i, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrlincooksi4i if ryearfullresidsimrlincooksi4i >= 1 & eddur2binary==1




*** MODEL SI-4J  RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA LINEAR INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4  if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrlincooksi4i < 1






*** MODEL SI-4K  UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA SQUARED INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq if eddur2binary==1



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict ryearfullresidsimrsqcooksi4k, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general ryearfullresidsimrsqcooksi4k if ryearfullresidsimrsqcooksi4k >= 1 & eddur2binary==1





*** MODEL SI-4L  RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA SQUARED INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq if eddur2binary==1 & ryearfullresidsimrsqcooksi4k < 1, norobust



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***** TABLE SI-5:  DISAGGREGATE MODELS BROKEN DOWN BY GENERAL VERSUS PRIMARY ELECTION CONTEST OBSERVATIONS ******





**** MODEL SI-5:A  GENERAL ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & general==1, norobust



*** MODEL SI-5B  PRIMARY ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & general==0, norobust






*** MODEL SI-5C GENERAL ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & general==1, norobust



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144





*** MODEL SI-5D  PRIMARY ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & general==0, norobust





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*** MODEL SI-5E  GENERAL ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj   if eddur2binary==1 & general==1, norobust



*** MODEL SI-5F  PRIMARY ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WIHTOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & general==0





*** MODEL SI-5G GENERAL ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & general==1, norobust




*** MODEL SI-5H PRIMARY ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & general==0





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*** MODEL SI-5I  GENERAL ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & general==1, norobust



*** MODEL SI-5J  PRIMARY ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & general==0, norobust




*** MODEL SI-5K  GENERAL ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr3cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & general==1, norobust




*** MODEL SI-5L  PRIMARY ELECTION CONTEST SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & general==0, norobust








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*** ESTIMATE OVERALL TENURE ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS: RELATIVE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN STATE AIG AND NATIONAL AIG] TABLE SA-5 **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-6A      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincometenureann eddurmonths2 relpictenureann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, norobust

predict tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6a, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6a if tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6a >= 1  & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL SI-6B     RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincometenureann eddurmonths2 relpictenureann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6a < 1, norobust








******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-6C      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincometenureann eddurmonths2 relpictenureann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1, norobust



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6c, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6c if tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6c >= 1  & eddur2binary==1







*** MODEL SI-6D    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincometenureann eddurmonths2 relpictenureann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6c < 1, norobust



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*1
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*12
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*24
* 
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*36
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*48
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*60
* 
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*72
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*84
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*96
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*108
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*120
* 
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*132
*
lincom relpersonalincometenureann + relpictenureann*144




*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-6E      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 relpicrtermann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1, norobust

predict tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6e, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6e if tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6e >= 1  & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL SI-6F     RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 relpicrtermann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6e < 1, norobust








******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-6G      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 relpicrtermann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1, norobust



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6g, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6g if tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6g >= 1  & eddur2binary==1







*** MODEL SI-6H    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 relpicrtermann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6g < 1, norobust



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*1
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*12
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*24
* 
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*36
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*48
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*60
* 
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*72
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*84
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*96
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*108
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*120
* 
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*132
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecenttermann + relpicrtermann*144




*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-6I      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 relpicryearann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1

predict tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6i, cooksd
*
*
list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6i if tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6i >= 1  & eddur2binary==1



*** MODEL SI-6J     RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 relpicryearann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6i < 1







******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-6K      UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 relpicryearann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1, norobust



** POST-ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTICS OF THE RESIDUALS FOR SKEWNESS, KURTOSIS, AND INFLUENTIAL-LEVERAGE OBSERVATIONS *** 

predict tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6k, cooksd

*
*
*
*

list electionresults eddurmonths2 general tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6k if tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6k >= 1  & eddur2binary==1







*** MODEL SI-6L    RESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES [EXCLUDING CASES CONTAINING COOK'S D VALUES >= 1.0 IN UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE] ***


qreg2 electionresults relpersonalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 relpicryearann lastelectionresults relpincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty relincumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & tenurefullresidsimrcooksi6k < 1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*1
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*12
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*24
* 
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*36
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*48
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*60
* 
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*72
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*84
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*96
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*108
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*120
* 
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*132
*
lincom relpersonalincomerecentyearann + relpicryearann*144











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***** TABLE SI-7:  DISAGGREGATE MODELS BROKEN DOWN BY "SHARED PARTISAN AFFILIATION WITH PRESIDENT" VERSUS "OTHERWISE" OBSERVATIONS ******







**** MODEL SI-7A    "SHARED PARTISAN AFFILIATON WITH PRESIDENT" [TENURE: p >= 0.516] SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartytenure >= 0.516, norobust



*** MODEL SI-7B    "OTHERWISE"  [TENURE: p < 0.516] SUBSAMPLE  [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartytenure < 0.516








*** MODEL SI-7C   "SHARED PARTISAN AFFILIATON WITH PRESIDENT" [TENURE: p >= 0.516] SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartytenure >= 0.516, norobust




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144





*** MODEL SI-7D    "OTHERWISE"  [TENURE: p < 0.516]  SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartytenure < 0.516




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144






*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



*** MODEL SI-7E     "SHARED PARTISAN AFFILIATON WITH PRESIDENT" [LAST TERM: p >= 0.500] SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj   if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartylastterm >= 0.500, norobust



*** MODEL SI-7F    "OTHERWISE"  [LAST TERM: p < 0.500] SUBSAMPLE [WIHTOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartylastterm < 0.500






*** MODEL SI-7G   "SHARED PARTISAN AFFILIATON WITH PRESIDENT" [LAST TERM: p >= 0.500] SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartylastterm >= 0.500, norobust




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144





*** MODEL SI-7H   "OTHERWISE"  [LAST TERM: p < 0.500] SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartylastterm < 0.500




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144




*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



*** MODEL SI-7I   "SHARED PARTISAN AFFILIATON WITH PRESIDENT" [FINAL YEAR: p = 1.000]  SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj   if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartyfinalyear==1, norobust




*** MODEL SI-7J   "OTHERWISE" [FINAL YEAR: p < 1.000]  SUBSAMPLE [WIHTOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartyfinalyear < 1








*** MODEL SI-7K   "SHARED PARTISAN AFFILIATON WITH PRESIDENT" [FINAL YEAR: p = 1.000]  SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartyfinalyear==1, norobust



**** EXCLUDE ANCILLARY CONTROL COVARIATES IN MODEL SA-7K DUE TO UNSTABLE ESTIMATES  ****

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartyfinalyear==1, norobust




*** MODEL SI-7L   "OTHERWISE"  [FINAL YEAR: p < 1.000]  SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartyfinalyear < 1




**** EXCLUDE ANCILLARY CONTROL COVARIATES IN MODEL SI-7L DUE TO UNSTABLE ESTIMATES  ****

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & sharedprespartyfinalyear < 1, norobust



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144












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*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************







***** TABLE SI-8:  DISAGGREGATE MODELS BROKEN DOWN BY "INVOLUNTARY EXIT" VERSUS "VOLUNTARY EXIT" OBSERVATIONS ******






**** MODEL SI-8A    "INVOLUNTARY EXIT" EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1




*** MODEL SI-8B    "VOLUNTARY EXIT" EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==0, norobust






*** MODEL SI-8C   "INVOLUNTARY EXIT" EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust



**** EXCLUDE ANCILLARY CONTROL COVARIATES IN MODEL SI-8C DUE TO UNSTABLE ESTIMATES  ****

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust




*** MODEL SI-8D    "VOLUNTARY EXIT"  EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincometenureann eddurmonths2 pictenureann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==0, norobust




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*1
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*12
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*24
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*36
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*48
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*60
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*72
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*84
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*96
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*108
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*120
* 
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*132
*
lincom personalincometenureann + pictenureann*144






*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



*** MODEL SI-8E     "INVOLUNTARY EXIT" EX-GOVERNOR  SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj   if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust


**** EXCLUDE ANCILLARY CONTROL COVARIATES IN MODEL SI-8E DUE TO UNSTABLE ESTIMATES  ****

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann   if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust




*** MODEL SI-8F    "VOLUNTARY EXIT"  EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WIHTOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==0






*** MODEL SI-8G    "INVOLUNTARY EXIT" EX-GOVERNOR  SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust



**** EXCLUDE ANCILLARY CONTROL COVARIATES IN MODEL SI-8G DUE TO UNSTABLE ESTIMATES  ****

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust






*** MODEL SI-8H   "VOLUNTARY EXIT"  EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann  eddurmonths2 picrtermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==0




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144




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*** MODEL SI-8I   "INVOLUNTARY EXIT" EX-GOVERNOR  SUBSAMPLE [WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj   if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust



*** MODEL SI-8J  "VOLUNTARY EXIT"  EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WIHTOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==0, norobust





*** MODEL SI-8K   "INVOLUNTARY EXIT" EX-GOVERNOR  SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==1, norobust




*** MODEL SI-8L   "VOLUNTARY EXIT"  EX-GOVERNOR SUBSAMPLE [WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION] ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann  eddurmonths2 picryearann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic  if eddur2binary==1 & involuntaryexit==0, norobust



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144












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*********  TABLE SI-9:  MODELS ANALYZING "PRIMACY" VS. "RECENCY" EFFECTS BY DISAGGREGATING THE OVERALL TENURE OBSERVATIONS TO ALLOW FOR FIRST-TERM AS WELL AS NON-LAST TERM OBSERVATIONS [LAST TERM & FINAL YEAR EFFECTS REMAIN THE SAME AS APPEARING IN MODELS 1A-3D -- SEE TABLE 1 IN THE MANUSCRIPT] ********






**** ONLY INCLUDES THOSE CASES IN WHICH THE EX-GOVERNOR SERVED MULTIPLE TERMS SINCE SINGLE-TERM GOVERNORS 'FIRST-TERM' PRIOR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP IS IDENTICAL TO THEIR 'LAST TERM' PRIOR ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP [MULTITERM == 1] ****



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*** ESTIMATE FIRST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 





******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-9A   UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults firsttermaigann  eddurmonths2 picfirsttermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1

predict tenurefullresidsimrcooksi9a, cooksd
*
*




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-9B  UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults firsttermaigann  eddurmonths2 picfirsttermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***

lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*1
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*12
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*24
* 
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*36
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*48
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*60
* 
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*72
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*84
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*96
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*108
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*120
* 
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*132
*
lincom firsttermaigann + picfirsttermann*144




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*** ESTIMATE NON-LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS] **** 



*** MODEL SI-9C   UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***


qreg2 electionresults nonlasttermaigann  eddurmonths2 picnonlasttermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-9D  UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults nonlasttermaigann  eddurmonths2 picnonlasttermann lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1




*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*1
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*12
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*24
* 
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*36
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*48
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*60
* 
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*72
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*84
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*96
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*108
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*120
* 
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*132
*
lincom nonlasttermaigann  + picnonlasttermann*144








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*** ESTIMATE RECENT/LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS]: SAME AS MODELS 2A-2D, EXCEPT BASED ONLY ON MULTITERM OBSERVATIONS [N = 74]  **** 






******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-9E   UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1, norobust




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-9F  UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecenttermann eddurmonths2 picrtermann  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF REPUTATION DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecenttermann + picrtermann*144






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*** ESTIMATE FINAL/LAST TERM ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP MODELS [BASED ON AVERAGE QUARTERLY PER CAPITA REAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH IN ANNUALIZED TERMS]: SAME AS MODELS 3A-3D, EXCEPT BASED ONLY ON MULTITERM OBSERVATIONS [N = 74]  **** 




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITHOUT SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-9G   UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj  if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1, norobust




******* ESTIMATE MODELS WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION BETWEEN INCUMBENT GOVERNORS SEEKING RE-ELECTION [= 0] AND NON-INCUMBENT EX-GOVERNORS SEEKING ELECTION [= 1] ********



*** MODEL SI-9H  UNRESTRICTED FULL SAMPLE WITH SAMPLE SELECTION CORRECTION VIA CUBIC INVERSE MILLS RATIO COVARIATES ***

qreg2 electionresults personalincomerecentyearann eddurmonths2 picryearann  lastelectionresults personalincpctchangeelectquarter general senateseat incumbparty incumbpartypicelectqtr incumbdef vapabschangelo stateideolchangepartyadj imr4 imr4sq imr4cubic if eddur2binary==1 & multiterm==1



*** CONDITIONAL MARGINAL EFFECTS OF INTERTEMPORAL DEPRECIATION OF ECONOMIC STEWARDSHIP ON EX-GOVERNOR'S VOTE SHARE IN FUTURE ELECTION CONTEST ***
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*1
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*12
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*24
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*36
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*48
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*60
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*72
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*84
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*96
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*108
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*120
* 
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*132
*
lincom personalincomerecentyearann + picryearann*144





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